COP 28: Expect disappointment, hope for more
As COP28 kicks off, what might we expect as the result of the week of negotiations? David Gorman suggests adopting a degree of scepticism about what might come out of the proceedings.
After another year of extreme weather events across the world, COP28 has started, with some of the great and the good jetting into Dubai to talk all things climate. The need for progress is urgent.
Back in 2015, COP21 led to the Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty with 196 signatories (or Parties). That Agreement came into force in November 2016 and was seen as a landmark in the multilateral climate change process because, for the first time, a binding agreement brought together nearly every nation in the world to combat climate change and adapt to its effects.
The main goal of the Paris Agreement was to limit global warming to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels, by 2050. The reason that a 1.5°C (rather than 2°C) increase was chosen is because the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, believes that crossing the 1.5°C threshold risks unleashing far more severe climate change effects, including more frequent and extreme droughts, heatwaves and rainfall.
However, to limit global warming to 1.5°C, greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025 at the latest and decline 43% by 2030, now only a little over six years away. COP28 this year will see the first “Global Stocktake” of the progress – or lack of it – made since Paris. So, there is much to discuss.
Eyebrows were raised about the host country, but we expect that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will use its COP Presidency to highlight its own status on the global stage.
COP28 is billed as: A prime opportunity to rethink, reboot, and refocus the climate agenda.
The President of the event is His Excellency Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber of the UAE. His Excellency has a big job on his hands, consulting with governments and other stakeholders, providing leadership and vision and – ultimately – brokering any agreements generated. He has said that the four pillars of the conference will be:
- fast-tracking the [energy] transition;
- fixing climate finance;
- focusing on people, lives and livelihoods;
- and underpinning everything with full inclusivity.
Sultan Al Jaber is the head of Abu Dhabi’s National Oil Company (Adnoc) and is regarded as a highly effective business leader. He wants to get the oil & gas industry more involved in the climate transition, at a time when the oil majors seem to be rolling back on the limited commitments they’ve made to renewable energy.
Although the UAE announced plans this year to invest $54 billion to triple its supply of renewable technologies by 2030 and was the first Arab state to set a “net-zero” emissions target, 80% of government revenue still comes from oil and gas exports.
The question is how can countries with a fossil fuel-dependent economy encourage action much faster than the market is delivering now? Yet nations like the UAE, as well as private companies, must shift their positions significantly and enable a rapid decline in the global use of fossil fuels, Antony Froggatt, deputy director of the Environment and Society Centre at Chatham House has said.
80% of (UAE) government revenue still comes from oil and gas exports
Sultan Al Jaber does have green credentials; before he headed Adnoc he ran Masdar, which has funded many renewables projects – mainly in the Middle East and Central Asia, but also the 620MW London Array offshore wind scheme.
But despite the UAE’s 2050 Net Zero commitments, Adnoc has been ramping up oil & gas production. In 2018, it produced 3 million barrels per day, but set a target to increase this to 5 million bpd well before 2030. Although Adnoc has made some noises about carbon commitments, they don’t seem very convincing. Their focus seems to be more about decreasing carbon intensity rather than the overall level of emissions.
At COP28, it seems unlikely that we will get any meaningful move forward in terms of commitments, although there might be a chance of a deal – the UAE has tried to be a middleperson between Russia, China and the US, and trades with them all – but it may be a watered down Agreement that some countries choose to ignore. We might see an agreement on Carbon Capture and Storage, although sequestering all carbon emissions is not seen as possible with current technologies. There will certainly be political pressure to announce a newsworthy agreement of some kind.
King Charles is due to attend the event, as are Rishi Sunak, Ursula von der Leyen, Narendra Modi and Pope Francis. However, Presidents Biden and Xi are staying home and sending envoys instead. Overall, with everything else that’s going on in the world just now, it’s right to be sceptical about prospects – that way, we won’t be disappointed.
Written by David Gorman
This post was originally published on 30 November 2023 by Professional Paraplanner: https://professionalparaplanner.co.uk/cop-28-expect-disappointment-hope-for-more/